CycleElectric.com - Newsletter November 2002

CycleElectric Newsletter November 2002

This newsletter concerns the business of electric bicycles and scooters, and is sent to people who have asked to be on the CycleElectric newsletter list, or are believed to be in the industry. If you wish to be removed from the list, send a reply message with the word “remove” in the Subject line.

Electric Bicycle Law for the USA
The US Senate has passed SR 1156, clearing the way for a legal definition of an electric bicycle in the USA. President Bush has signed this law. The new law will assign the governance of electric bicycles to the Consumer Product Safety Commission, and will define a bicycle that has pedals, (and is capable of being propelled by those pedals) an electric motor of no more than 750 watts, and a top speed (on motor only) of 20 mph as a “bicycle”.

Electric Bicycle Estimates
I have been accused of over estimating electric bicycle sales. And I must admit that I have made errors. New data is available, and my estimates are changed. Here are the new estimates:

USA: less than 20,000 in the last 12 months.
Japan: about 200,000
China: more than one million
Europe: about 45,000

Until now, the numbers in China have been hard to evaluate. But now almost every credible source on Chinese electric bikes agrees that there are more than one million units being sold.

Tokyo Cycle Show
The Tokyo cycle show ended November 24. Yamaha, Sanyo, Panasonic were the companies with the largest offerings of electric bicycles. Yamaha was showing two new products – a gasoline / electric hybrid prototype, and the Passol – a 50cc equivalent electric motor scooter using Li-Ion batteries.
The quality of the Japanese electric bicycles is now very attractive. But Japanese law limits the bikes to sedate performance that consumers and retailers say must be changed.

New Category?
The Yamaha Passol, the Velocci, and the eGo electric scooters are all examples of lightweight electric vehicles with performance that resembles 50cc motor scooters and mopeds. This new class of vehicles may represent the correct path for the evolution of light electric vehicles, and this newsletter will start to track them.
The Passol is an experiment by Yamaha to determine the market acceptance for such vehicles and is limited to 500 pieces and a leased battery package in Tokyo area.

Fuel Cells vs. Batteries and the future of electric bikes
Gerhard Ellsaesser writes me, and criticizes me for being too optimistic about the future of battery electric bikes. Ellsaesser says that the fuel cell will be essential for the success of two wheel electric vehicles, and predicts that the cost of the effective battery package and the cost of a fuel cell will soon be the same.
As I see the industry rapidly moving towards more expensive and battery batteries such as NiMH and Li-Ion, I see that he has a point.
A fuel cell that delivers sufficient energy and is less than 1200 USD will be a turning point for this industry.

Scooter success stories!
A new scooter is selling well in Polaris dealerships in the USA.
Collaboration between EV Rider, HCF and Polaris may be the best and best selling quality scooter for 2003.
The ETC / Electric Wheels scooter “Captain Billy Whizz-bang” is expected in stores soon.
The HCF “707” may be the best selling quality scooter world wide. After winning awards in Germany, this model is selling well in USA and EU.

CycleElectric Newsletter is written and edited by Ed Benjamin of CycleElectric International Consulting Group. All of the content of this newsletter should be regarded as editorial, and is affected by Benjamin's opinions and business relationships.