CycleElectric Newsletter October 2003

Light Electric Vehicle Predictions
So far as we know, CycleElectric is the only organization trying to track and predict electric bike and scooter sales on a world wide basis.
Hard data is, frankly, hard to find. CycleElectric uses a combination of export / import numbers where available, voluntary reporting from participants, trade journal articles, educated guesses, and comparisons among all these sources. We try to check the numbers from bike companies with the numbers we hear from battery or motor companies, or other suppliers. The predictions offered below carry no guarantee but we have been reasonably close over the years.
Definitions: A Pedelec is a bike that the rider must pedal for the motor to run. An ebike or power on demand bike is one that has a throttle and the rider may pedal if they wish, or not. A light or small electric scooter is usually a two wheeler that weighs less than 100 lbs and the rider may stand or sit on the machine. This article does not address mobility scooters designed for handicapped people. This article does not address human transporters (Segway) or Electric Motor Scooters (similar in size and performance to a 50cc Vespa or Yamaha.) or any other electric vehicles.

Here is what we think is going to happen in the market:

The USA has consistently disappointed observers. Despite many efforts to introduce product by a number of companies sales remain slow. Major players are EV Global and Giant. Every year for the past few years CycleElectric has actually downgraded estimates of sales in the USA. Current estimates are 25,000 pieces of all makes with a large number of small importers bringing in a few Chinese bikes each.
Power on demand bikes with 750 watt motors and speeds of up to 20 mph are now legal in the USA. This opens the door for a lot of growth. We expect to see inexpensive electric bikes sell in the tens of thousands of pieces during 2004. Existing companies with more expensive products will grow, but not dramatically.
Small electric scooters are a different story. Expected sales in the USA will exceed 500,000 pieces in the next 12 months. Most are or will be minimum price imports from China. But a variety of product from Taiwan is selling as well. Major players are Xingue Group, Zhejiang Feida Group, Zhejiang Yongjiang Industrial, (those wishing to contact these companies are referred to Amy Chiang) The major players in Taiwan are HCF (Sam Cheng) and JD Components.

The EU has seen increased sales in Holland and the UK, followed by Germany. Major players are Giant, Sparta and Prima. Many smaller companies and importers of Chinese bikes are participating in this market. Sales are thought to be about 60,000 pieces. Pedelecs are required by law in the EU.
We expect to see slow but steady growth in the EU. Prices are dropping on the continent as lower priced products are sourced from China, and rising in the UK as better quality bikes from Taiwan are introduced. Previously, the main market in the UK has been for low priced Chinese bikes.
Small electric scooters come in two general categories for Europe. A few thousand pieces have been imported that conform to EU law and are legal on the roadways. The major supplier of these has been HCF in Taiwan. This business will grow dramatically as more companies get their product homologated and the EU distributors build larger networks.
Scooters that are not homologated, or are illegal for roadway use are selling in large numbers. The same Chinese suppliers mentioned above are the suppliers. Estimates are vague as the sale of such product is officially non-existent.

Japanese electric bike sales remain fairly stable. The market has fluctuated in the area of 200,000 pieces per year for several years now. And this is expected to continue. Major players are National Bicycle and Yamaha.
Small electric scooters are just now starting to be available in Japan. There is little information on their sales there. But CycleElectric believes that this is a product that Japan will embrace with enthusiasm in the next two years. Look for sales of hundreds of thousands of pieces. Major suppliers will be Taiwanese companies.

China is the main event for electric bikes. They have purchased more than 3 million units in the last 12 months. And they are on track for 5 million units in the next 12 months. Favorable laws and ideal conditions for electric bikes are driving this business. These heavy domestic sales are driving prices down and quality up in China. Major players are T&Di, Jinghua Luyuan, and Shanghai Elite. There are more than 160 electric bike makers in China now and a myriad of component makers.
Small electric scooters are not heavily used by the Chinese. Most of the 300 plus electric scooter makers in China are building almost exclusively for export. For the Chinese, an electric bike is for transportation, and bikes are better transport than small scooters.